Republican Debate Analysis

New and improved version! Sometimes it is hard to write coherently at 2 a.m..

Despite the collective efforts of Andersen Cooper and the Cable News Network, the latest Republican debate was still a feisty and entertaining program. With nearly a month left before the first votes are cast in the Iowa caucuses, voters are starting to see an edgier, more hostile group of GOP candidates which, no doubt, has provided a larger number of squabbles than the collective conservative love fest that has encompassed prior debates.

Clearly the individual with the most to lose entering Florida was former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney. The strategy of the Romney camp has been to place a heavy focus on Iowa and New Hampshire in order to garner enough momentum to hurdle over a number of elephant-size hurdles waiting patiently in the back of the campaign bus. For good or for worse, Mitt Romney has essentially purchased the state of Iowa, but his grip is slipping and he is quickly seeing a lot of his support slip into the Huckabee camp. With weak polling elsewhere in the nation, Romney’s only shot at the Republican nomination is to secure the first two primary states and make a victory seem inevitable; in addition to his much publicized speech on faith, look for the Governor to take more aggressive steps in the next few weeks.

Former Tennessee Senator Fred Thompson also needed a strong showing in this last debate as he has seen little or no growth in his polling numbers. Senator Thompson’s hyped splash into the Republican field has been dissapointing at best; faced with lukewarm fundraising totals and a dwindling number of “Fredheads”, Thompson desperately needs some sort of spark to kick start his floundering campaign.

Other than Arizona Senator John McCain, who also needs a strong push to start his campaign back up, the rest of the candidates could afford to enter Florida on cruise control; here is how they faired:

The Good:

Governor Mike Huckabee: A

Mike Huckabee was the clear winner of the night; the former Arkansas Governor had all the momentum in the world and was able to capitalize. Huckabee has found his niche in the Republican Primaries with an evangelical Christian bloc that has long held reservations about Mitt Romney. Playing the sunny preacher with an increasing support base, Mr. Huckabee could afford to stay positive and he did. The Governor hit the ball out of the park with his defense of Arkansas’s controversial policy of giving scholarships to illegal immigrants and he was easily able to brush aside Mitt Romney’s criticisms of his use of government funds to support non-citizens. Huckabee also gave strong explanations for his support of the death penalty, belief in the bible, and was able to articulate his answers to tough questions by appealing to the emotions of his audience. On a side note, it seems that the Huckabee camp has recognized the growing animosity towards his compassionate conservative message as he toned down the sob stories.

Mayor Rudy Giuliani: B

While leading in the national polls, Mayor Giuliani has not received the same amount of popularity in Iowa and New Hampshire and had some ground to gain coming into the debate. Right away, the Mayor got himself tangled in a spar with Mitt Romney on immigration and ended up on the winner’s side by pointing out the Governor’s personal history of hiring illegal immigrants. Giuliani did a great job of defending New York’s sanctuary city status and was able to link New York’s immigration policies to crime prevention, one of his strong points. The former Mayor gave an equally good defense of his gun record; there has been a lot of talk about Giuliani’s liberal gun policies and he aggressively responded to the allegations that he is weak on 2^nd amendment rights. For the most part, Giuliani was able to further his standing as an electable candidate who really isn’t all that bad. He seemed to stay on cruise control for most of the night and didn’t say anything that got him into trouble.

Senator John McCain: B

You can really see the frustration and fatigue in the face of John McCain, especially when it comes to immigration. Surprisingly, the Arizona Senator has been slowly rising in the polls, mostly because of his aggressive stance on the war in Iraq. Mr. McCain started out flat on his illegal immigration answer but made a great point about joining the Senate to “do the hard things, not the easy things” this should be the direction he will take on the issue for the rest of the election cycle. As usual, McCain provided very strong answers on foreign policy and took Mitt Romney to school on the issue of torture and water boarding. His smartest move of the night was to go after Ron Paul’s anti-war stance which can bring him some much needed attention and place the focus on his strong foreign policy experience. Currently, the problem with McCain is that he appears aged and tired; he is going to need some more energy to make it past the primaries.

On the Fence


Congressman Ron Paul: C+

While Mr. Paul will not receive the Republican nomination, his message has resonated among the libertarian wing of the GOP. Currently, the problem with Mr. Paul is he isn’t ready for primetime. You can tell that the Texas Representative is not the greatest natural speaker and that tends to trip him up. Additionally, Mr. Paul has a nasty habit of actually answering the questions that he is being asked. During the debate, the Congressman received a bizarre question about the transcontinental highway; to his credit, Paul gave a fairly detailed report on the development of trade relations and national sovereignty; while educational, such answers are not what people want to hear. Paul has a great message and is the lone voice for a lot of displaced economic conservatives but he needs to get better at tailoring his talking points and using his speaking time to focus on issues that resonate. Overall, Paul did fairly well and, for the most part, held his own against John McCain on the war in Iraq but he could make even more headway if he spent some time with a speech coach.

On a side note: It seems that the only Paul supporters I run into are stoned, confused hippies and college professors. Are there any normal people supporting Ron Paul?

The Ugly

Senator Fred Thompson: C-

Someone needs to tell Fred Thompson’s campaign manager to give him a few Red Bull’s before he attends the next debate. It must be so frustrating to be a ‘Fredhead” as the Senator has the right philosophy but lacks the charisma and fire to communicate his message. Right out of the gate, Thompson fell flat and aside from a quick jab at Giuliani’s hiring practices, he was a complete non-factor in Florida. Each year, candidates will tell you that we are facing the most important election of our lifetime – while that may not apply in 2008, we are in a time when Republican frustration is higher than it has been in years and conservatives are looking for someone to step up and reclaim the Grand Old Party. If Fred Thompson does not shake his campaign up soon there would be no reason for him to continue past South Carolina.

Governor Mitt Romney: D

The Governor had the most to lose in this debate and he most certainly lost it. Romney really needed a strong performance in Florida to keep his declining support from bolting to Mike Huckabee. To his credit, the former Massachusetts Governor aggressively went after the records of his opponents; however, I don’t know if you knew this, but Mitt Romney isn’t the smoothest of characters and it showed. One of the risks of locking horns with your opponent is that he might win. In Romney’s case both Giuliani and Huckabee out played him and left the Governor looking overaggressive and ill-prepared. At times, Romney looked flustered and frustrated and even offered some Hillary type non answers to simple questions. I really think that this is the end for Mitt Romney, it says a lot about a candidate who spends over 50 million dollars in a primary and can only garner about 10% of the vote. There is a lesson to be learned here: in politics, money doesn’t always ensure victory and knowledge is half the battle!

For the record I am boycotting Tom Tancredo out of general principle. I have also made an executive decision: Duncan Hunter is no longer running for President.